Padres Get A Bargain In Jon Garland

Here are the career pitching lines for two pitchers. Both pitchers have pitched 10 years in the major leagues.

Pitcher A: 30-years-old, a career record of 117-102 with a 4.42 ERA, a 1.38 WHIP, and a 44.5 percent groundball rate.

Pitcher B: 31-years-old, a career record of 87-79 with a 4.39 ERA, a 1.34 WHIP, and a 48.6 percent groundball rate.

Pitcher B is a year older and hasn’t enjoyed the same success throughout his career as Pitcher A. However, there was a “sweepstakes” for Pitcher B and Pitcher A didn’t have much of a market.

Garland will be pitching in San Diego in 2010

Both pitchers recently signed contracts. Pitcher A signed a one-year, $4.75 million contract with a mutual option for 2011. Pitcher B signed a two-year, $16 million contract.

Pitcher A is Jon Garland and Pitcher B is Joel Pineiro.

Pineiro went into this offseason as the second or third best starting pitcher on the market and Garland was an afterthought. Can someone explain to me why?

Oh wait, I know why. Pineiro had a career year in his walk year and Garland didn’t. Instead of looking at a pitcher’s overall success, teams usually sign a guy off of their performance in their walk-year. It’s a mistake that teams–and especially the Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim–make time and time again.

While Pineiro had the better year in 2009, Garland throughout his career has been the better pitcher. I know Garland gives up a lot of hits and peripherals aren’t sexy. But the bottom line is, this guy knows how to win games.

From 2005-20008, Garland is 60-38 with a 4.12 ERA. His 60-38 record equals a .612 winning percentage. That is pretty impressive.

I know wins for a pitcher is becoming less relevant in this day and age of advanced statistics, but Garland knows how to win baseball games. Jack Morris (I am not comparing Garland to Morris. I just using him as a reference) didn’t have the greatest peripherals, but he knew how to win games.

Sometimes we and myself included, forget the bottom-line is winning.

Will Garland help the San Diego Padres win the National League West? Not a chance. The Padres are still a couple of years away from really competing for a NL West crown.

But Garland will give them innings (averages 208 innings over the last five years) and just as good of a performance as Joel Pineiro, for less money. Best case scenario? Garland pitches like he normally does and the Padres flip him for prospects at the trading deadline.

The Padres got a great bargain in Garland.

You can follow The Ghost of Moonlight Graham on Twitter @ theghostofmlg

Angels Add To Their Rotation, Sign Joel Pineiro

The Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim are one of the best run organizations in baseball. From top to bottom, the Angels do things the right way. From the way they develop players to the way they treat their fans, the Angels are a first-class organization.

However, even the best organizations make mistakes.

When it comes to signing free agents, the Angels really haven’t been on top of their game over the last couple of years. Outside of the solid signings of Torii Hunter and Bobby Abreu, the Angels have made suspect signings like Justin Speier, Gary Matthews Jr., Brian Fuentes, and Fernando Rodney.

And now, the Angels have made another suspect signing.

Pineiro got a two-year deal from Anaheim

According to various sources, the Angels have signed RHP Joel Pineiro to a two-year, $16 million contract. Pineiro will undergo a physical today and the deal should be officially announced shortly.

As many of you know, I am not a fan of Pineiro. I believe he is just another Dave Duncan reclamation project. Here is what I wrote about Pineiro back in September:

“Ironically, Pineiro is looking for a contract similar to Lohse’s this offseason. We all know what is going to happen. Some idiotic team is going to give him a three-year, $28 million contract and guess what is going to happen?

In his first year Pineiro is going to go 9-12 with a 4.65 ERA and his contract is going to hamstring that team for the next three years. It’s inevitable.

That’s why if I was a GM, I would stay away from Pineiro in the offseason.

I don’t need to see advanced statistics or any other stats for that matter. I will just use the “eye test” on this one. And the eye test tells me, once a mediocre pitcher, always a mediocre pitcher.”

Now, I can’t completely kill the Angels on this deal because they only signed Pineiro to a two-year deal. A two-year deal is clearly not as bad as the three or four-year deal that I thought he might have gotten. But I just don’t see Pineiro having two successful years in Anaheim.

It’s amazing to me when pitchers and their agents can’t see where their bread is buttered. Pineiro is a National League pitcher and he had success last year pitching in the NL. So why go to the American League West?

It makes no sense.

This reminds me so much of what Jeff Weaver did after the St. Louis Cardinals won the World Series in 2006. Weaver got a second life in the National League and with the Cardinals, but signed with the Seattle Mariners the following offseason.

Weaver was a disaster in Seattle and I think Pineiro is headed down that path.

What is amazing is that despite all of the Angels suspect moves and losses this offseason, I still think they have enough to win the AL West. The Angels are proving that no matter who they lose and who they bring in, they can win with what they have.

That’s why they are one of the best run organizations in baseball.

You can follow The Ghost of Moonlight Graham on Twitter @ theghostofmlg

Arbitration Roundup

For those of you who are not aware, yesterday at 11:59 pm est was the last day at teams could offer their free agents arbitration. Once a team offers arbitration to a player, that player has until Dec. 7 to accept.

A team would offer arbitration to a player–especially to a Type A or a Type B free agent because that team then would receive draft compensation as a result of that player signing with a new team.

A great example of this is what we saw this morning.

Since Billy Wagner signed with the Atlanta Braves and he was a Type A free agent who was offered arbitration, the Boston Red Sox will receive the Braves’ first-round pick (20th overall) and a supplemental pick in 2010.

Here is a list of the players who were offered arbitration by their current clubs. This list is courtesy of MLB Trade Rumors.

Type A Free Agents (10 players)

Chone Figgins

Figgins was offered arbitration by the Angels

John Lackey
Jose Valverde
Marco Scutaro
Mike Gonzalez
Rafael Soriano
Matt Holliday
Billy Wagner
Jason Bay
Rafael Betancourt

Type B Free Agents (13 players)

Justin Duchscherer
Rod Barajas
Joel Pineiro
Mark DeRosa
Adrian Beltre
Ivan Rodriguez
Marlon Byrd
Brian Shouse
Gregg Zaun
Jason Marquis
Brandon Lyon
Fernando Rodney
Carl Pavano

Yesterday was a good day for guys like Bengie Molina, Jermaine Dye, LaTroy Hawkins, and Kevin Gregg, who are all Type A free agents. Since these players were not offered arbitration and will not cost a first-round draft pick, they become much more attractive for teams to sign.

My predictions are that Molina ends up with the New York Mets and Dye ends up with the San Francisco Giants.

Yesterday was a bad day for a player like Rafael Betancourt. With him being a Type A free agent and offered arbitration by the Colorado Rockies, he is going to have a hard time finding work.

It’s hard to justify giving up a first-round pick for a middle reliever, who has been up and down for much of his career. My guess is he ends up back with the Rockies in 2010.

After Dec. 7, we will start to see the dominoes start to fall in the free agent market.

You can follow The Ghost of Moonlight Graham on Twitter @ theghostofmlg

Cardinals Face Franchise Defining Offseason

Every year, whether a team won 90-plus games like the Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim or a team’s season ended in April like the Washington Nationals, every team faces major offseason decisions.

Some decisions are solely made for the next season and some decisions can shape the course of the franchise for a years to come. Decisions can be made by trades, arbitration, and of course, free agency.

For the St. Louis Cardinals, they face an offseason of free agency that will define the course of their franchise for years to come.

The Cardinals have a myriad of impending free agents, including Matt Holliday, Joel Pineiro, Mark DeRosa, Rick Ankiel, Troy Glaus, John Smoltz, Khalil Greene, and Todd Wellemeyer.

However, the most important free agent for the Cardinals is manager Tony LaRussa. LaRussa’s contract is up at the end of the month and if LaRussa doesn’t come back, it could set the Cardinals’ franchise back for years to come.

LaRussa is a free agent at the end of the month

LaRussa gives the Cardinals credibility and credibility usually means winning. When players come to play for LaRussa, they know they are in a winning environment. Top players always want to play for him (unless your name is Scott Rolen).

Just think about the course of events if LaRussa leaves.

If LaRussa leaves, then pitching coach Dave Duncan leaves. Duncan is just as important to the Cardinals’ success as LaRussa. Duncan, time and time again is able to take mediocre pitchers and turn them into winners.

Dave Stewart, Bob Welch, Mike Moore, Dennis Eckersly, Jeff Suppan, and Chris Carpenter all had their careers turned around by Duncan.

That allows the Cardinals to spend their resources on offensive players such as Larry Walker, Jim Edmonds, Matt Holliday, Mark DeRosa, and Albert Pujols.

Speaking of Pujols.

If LaRussa leaves at the end of the month, it could very possibly mean Pujols could leave after the 2010 season. Pujols is a free agent at the end of the 2010 season and I would say right now there is an 85 percent chance he stays with the Cardinals.

If LaRussa leaves, then I would say that percentage goes down to 25. Pujols has only played for LaRussa in his career and has said that all he wants is for the Cardinals to put a competitive team on the field year after year. Pujols knows every year his teams have a chance of competing with LaRussa at the helm.

Do you think he is going to take a home-town discount playing for Eric Wedge (I am just throwing his name out there. He is not rumored to be going to the Cardinals if LaRussa leaves) or some second rate manager?

That is why LaRussa coming back is so important. Him leaving sets off a chain of events that could set the Cardinals into rebuilding mode after the 2010 season.

According to the St. Louis Post Dispatch, team chairman Bill DeWitt Jr., GM John Mozeliak, LaRussa met for two hours yesterday reviewing the season.

It will be interesting to see what happens with LaRussa. If I was a betting man, I would put my money on LaRussa coming back and signing a new deal with the Cardinals.

The Cardinals just wouldn’t be the same without him.

Dodgers Dominate, Sweep Cardinals

Sweeping teams in the NLDS is starting to become old hat for the Los Angeles Dodgers.

Last year, the Dodgers swept the Chicago Cubs right out of the NLDS and this year they took their brooms out against the St. Louis Cardinals. The Dodgers beat the Cardinals yesterday 5-1 to win their best-of-five Division Series three games to none.

My poor buddy and resident Cardinals fan, Tom.

The Cardinals are his life. Now, instead of watching of watching the Cardinals today, he will be reduced to watching reruns of Phineas and Ferb with his daughter and shopping for wicker chairs at Fortunoff’s with his wife.

I already Fedex’d him a rope.

The Dodgers in this series really whipped the Cardinals in every way imaginable. They out hit, out defensed, out managed, out hustled, out pitched, and just flat-out out played the Cardinals.

It was all smiles for Padilla yesterday

Yesterday’s game was a microcosm of the entire series.

Here is what I said about the Vicente Padilla when the Dodgers signed him: “To be honest, I actually like this move for the Dodgers. Going from the launching pad known as Arlington Stadium to the friendly confines of Dodger Stadium, should benefit Padilla tremendously. “

I always feel like the Dodgers can plug in any pitcher and they will be serviceable in Dodger Stadium. IE: Jose Lima in 2004.”

I thought Padilla would be good, but not this good. Yesterday, Padilla was very good. Padilla allowed just four hits, walked one, struckout out four, and most importantly gave up zero runs in seven rock-solid innings of work.

And give Padilla and catcher Russell Martin a lot of credit in this game. They realized early on that the Cardinals were impatient and very aggressive with their hitting approach.

So what do you do when a team is impatient? You throw pitches off the plate. Not too much where even Vladimir Guerrero wouldn’t swing at the pitch. But just enough where the pitch is close enough to be called a strike.

Case in point–the Yadier Molina AB in the first inning.

I thought this was the most important AB of the game. The Dodgers had already scored a run in the first inning and the Cardinals came back to load the bases with two outs in the first inning.

Up came Molina and Molina played right into Padilla’s hands. You could tell that when Molina went up to the plate, Padilla could have thrown a ball five feet over his head and Molina still would have swung at it.

Martin sets up very inside, Padilla throws the ball about five inches off the plate inside, and Molina grounds weakly to short. If Molina gets a big hit there, it could have been the jump start the Cardinals needed.

One last note about the Padilla-Lima comparison I referenced to earlier. Lima shutout the Cardinals in Game Three of the NLDS back in 2004.

Oh the humanity.

Andre Ethier hit a two-run bomb off of Joel Pineiro to make the score 3-0 and the game was essentially over. And speaking of Pineiro, I am going to get on Tony LaRussa here for a second.

I felt LaRussa really, really had a bad game yesterday. It was like he was asleep at the wheel.

For a guy who makes five pitching changes to get one out in the seventh inning of a meaningless game in San Diego, how can he leave Pineiro in the game for as long as he did?

It was clear early on that Pineiro didn’t have his sinker working and was leaving the ball up. When I was on the phone with Tom (resident Cardinal fan from early), he noticed this right away.

As soon as Pineiro gave up that bomb to Ethier, LaRussa should have been warming someone up. The way the Cardinals’ offense was going, three runs was like 10.

LaRussa left Pineiro in the fourth, he gave up another run, AND HE WAS STILL IN THE GAME!!! It wasn’t until the fifth that LaRussa took Pineiro out. The damage was done however, as the Cardinals were down 4-0.

Not only did LaRussa fall asleep in handling Pineiro, he fell asleep in the seventh inning as well. The Dodgers were still up 4-0, they had a runner on third with two outs and Manny Ramirez was coming to the plate.

Ramirez had already doubled twice and was swinging a hot bat this game. So of course you walk him right? Not if you are LaRussa. LaRussa decided to pitch to Manny and of course, Manny singled to make the game an unreachable 5-0.

For a guy who over manages every situation of every game, he decided to under manage in his team’s most important game of the season. Now he can under manage his golf game because LaRussa’s and the rest of the Cardinals’ season is over.

The Dodgers will play the winner of the Colorado Rockies-Philadelphia Phillies series, which is currently tied at one game apiece. Which ever team they play, the Dodgers will be the favorite in the series.

But for now, the Dodgers can sit back, relax, and enjoy the moment.

They are headed to the NLCS.

Teams Should Stay Away From Joel Pineiro This Offseason

St. Louis Cardinals Pitching Coach Dave Duncan is one of the best pitching coaches in the game. As a matter of fact, he might go down as one of the best pitching coaches of all-time. Duncan has taken the term “One man’s garbage is another man’s treasure” to the extreme.

From Dave Stewart to Mike Moore to Chris Carpenter, Duncan has taken mediocre pitchers and transformed them into quality major-league starters. Duncan’s latest rags to riches story — Joel Pineiro.

Pineiro is not worth the investment

Many forget that Pineiro was an up and coming stud with the Seattle Mariners back in the early 2000′s. In 2002 and 2003, Pineiro went a combined 30-18 with a 3.52 ERA. He looked like one of the rising pitchers in the game.

In 2004, Pineiro was shut down 21 starts into the season with a sore elbow and hasn’t been the same since. Quite frankly, since his 16-win 2003 season — he has stunk.

From 2003-2008, Pineiro’s record was 35-47. Very Jeff Weaver-like. However, Pineiro’s 2009 season has been a different story. Pineiro is 14-11 with a very respectable 3.31 and even has three complete games and two shutouts.

Pineiro’s story is all too familiar. Mediocre pitcher who finds success in his free agent year. Sounds a lot like Jeff Suppan, Jeff Weaver, and Kyle Lohse’s story to me.

Lohse’s story is most similar to Pineiro’s. Lohse had two good seasons with the Minnesota Twins in 2002 and 2003. In those two seasons he went 27-19. From 2003-2007, Lohse went 32-48 and was just an awful pitcher.

Sound Familiar?

In 2008, Lohse went an amazing 15-7 with an ERA of 3.78. Lohse parlayed that season into a four-year, $41 million contract from the Cardinals. Cha ching!

I can’t believe the Cardinals, a seemingly smart organization fell for it. How quickly do you think Lohse signed that contract? Two seconds tops.

Guess what Lohse is doing this year? That’s right, he’s back to same awful pitcher we have known to grow to love. He is a Lohsian 5-8 with a 4.78 ERA. That a boy Kyle. I always knew you had it in you again.

Ironically, Pineiro is looking for a contract similar to Lohse’s this offseason. We all know what is going to happen. Some idiotic team is going to give him a three-year, $28 million contract and guess what is going to happen?

In his first year Pineiro is going to go 9-12 with a 4.65 ERA and his contract is going to hamstring that team for the next three years. It’s inevitable.

That’s why if I was a GM, I would stay away from Pineiro in the offseason.

I don’t need to see advanced statistics or anyother stats for that matter. I will just use the “eye test” on this one. And the eye test tells me, once a mediocre pitcher, always a mediocre pitcher.

One year doesn’t change that.

Fantasy Week In Review 5/18-5/24

Since I missed my weekly fantasy week in review post last week because of a family matter I needed to attend, I was planning on doing a super 2 week fantasy review this week. Unfortunately that is not going to happen. Why? Because there isn’t a site out there that gives stats for the past 14 days!!! Every site is either 7 days, 30 days, etc… Very frustrating. Does anyone know of a site that gives 14 day stats?

That being said, I will do my normal fantasy week in review this week. Here are the fantasy studs, the players who are of concern, injury news and potential pickups for the week of 5/18 – 5/24.

Fantasy Studs

Joe Mauer – .458/4/13/.516. The best catcher in baseball, might soon become the best player in baseball.

Jason Bartlett – .385/2/13/.469. I thought this guy was only supposed to play defense?

Michael Cuddyer – .448/4/12. Any player who hits for the cycle is a fantasy stud.

Mark Teixeira – .444/5/10. I guess having Arod hitting behind you really does help.

Brandon McCarthy – 1-1 with a 1.69 ERA in 16 IP. Threw the very rare CGSO last week and at 25, looks to be coming into his own.

Madson has been lights out lately

Joel Pineiro – 1-1 with a 1.69 ERA in 16 IP. 2 Quality Starts and a CGSO makes for a very good week.

Ryan Madson – 3 Holds with 0.00 ERA and 5 K’s in 3.2 IP. If your in a league that counts holds as a stat (one of my leagues does), then Madson is your guy. Right now he is the best set-up guy in the game.

Reasons For Concern

Brad Lidge – 2 blown saves, 6 hits, 2 walks and a 15.43 ERA in 2.1 IP. After not blowing a save in 2008, Lidge has now 4 blown saves in 2009. Lidge looked terrible against the Yankees. He has a 9.15 ERA on the season and is now wearing a special insole in his cleat which is designed to alleviate pain in his knee. There are a lot of reasons to be concerned with Lidge at this point.

Ricky Nolasco – Things have gotten so bad for Nolasco that he was sent down to the Minors after Friday’s start. If I had Nolasco on any of my fantasy teams, I wouldn’t drop him. I just think he has hit an extreme rough patch and he is too good to be this bad. He could help your team out in the second half of the season.

Chris Davis – .053/0/0. Everyone’s preseason mancrush struck out 10 times in 19 AB’s last week. On the season, Davis has K’d 66 times in just 150 plate appearances. That is almost half the time!!!

Scott Kazmir – Kazmir has been awful this year and was placed on the 15 Day DL last week. As I wrote, I am a little skeptical of this move. I could be wrong, but I think this is more the Rays asking Kazmir to take a time out rather than Kazmir having a serious leg injury.

Travis Snider – The Blue Jays sent the struggling Snider to Triple A last week. I guess if I pick you to win the Rookie of the Year award, you will be sent to the minors. I also predicted Cameron Maybin to win the award in the NL. Good times. I do however, expect both Snider and Maybin to be called back up in the second half.

Injuries

Chris Iannetta – Placed on the 15 Day DL with a strained right hamstring. This hurts because Iannetta was hitting .276/5/13/.364 in May.

Mike Aviles – Placed on the 15 Day DL with a strained right forearm. Aviles has fallen flat on his face this year and will not be missed by fantasy owners.

Rich Harden – Placed on the 15 Day DL with a bad back. Harden is halfway to filling his quota of two trips to the DL per year.

Losing Weeks is a big blow

Edison Volquez – Placed on the 15 Day DLwith back spasms. I am not too concerned with this injury. Volquez should be ready to go the first week of June.

Rickie Weeks – Out for the year with a wrist injury. Crushing blow not only to fantasy teams but more importantly the Brewers. Weeks was headed for a breakout 2009.

Potential Pickups

Tommy Hanson – Hanson is ready and it is only a matter of time before he gets called up. Snag him before someone else in your league does. Especially if you are in a keeper league.

Anthony Swarzak – Swarzak threw 7 scoreless innings against the Brewers in his major league debut. He was one of the Twins’ best prospects before he was called up, so the potential is there.

Derek Holland – I really like Holland. He just reminds me of a young Steve Avery on the Braves, not the washed up Avery on the Red Sox. He pitched well in his first start of the season against the Astros. He only made one bad pitch and that was to Berkman in the 5th. Expect some rookie growing pains, but he should be in the Rangers’ rotation for the long haul.

Ryan Madson – Madson might be worth picking up if you have a roster spot. If Lidge continues to pitch like The Ghost of Wayne Gomes, then Madson would be next in line for save opportunities.