Teams Should Stay Away From Joel Pineiro This Offseason

St. Louis Cardinals Pitching Coach Dave Duncan is one of the best pitching coaches in the game. As a matter of fact, he might go down as one of the best pitching coaches of all-time. Duncan has taken the term “One man’s garbage is another man’s treasure” to the extreme.

From Dave Stewart to Mike Moore to Chris Carpenter, Duncan has taken mediocre pitchers and transformed them into quality major-league starters. Duncan’s latest rags to riches story — Joel Pineiro.

Pineiro is not worth the investment

Pineiro is not worth the investment

Many forget that Pineiro was an up and coming stud with the Seattle Mariners back in the early 2000’s. In 2002 and 2003, Pineiro went a combined 30-18 with a 3.52 ERA. He looked like one of the rising pitchers in the game.

In 2004, Pineiro was shut down 21 starts into the season with a sore elbow and hasn’t been the same since. Quite frankly, since his 16-win 2003 season — he has stunk.

From 2003-2008, Pineiro’s record was 35-47. Very Jeff Weaver-like. However, Pineiro’s 2009 season has been a different story. Pineiro is 14-11 with a very respectable 3.31 and even has three complete games and two shutouts.

Pineiro’s story is all too familiar. Mediocre pitcher who finds success in his free agent year. Sounds a lot like Jeff Suppan, Jeff Weaver, and Kyle Lohse’s story to me.

Lohse’s story is most similar to Pineiro’s. Lohse had two good seasons with the Minnesota Twins in 2002 and 2003. In those two seasons he went 27-19. From 2003-2007, Lohse went 32-48 and was just an awful pitcher.

Sound Familiar?

In 2008, Lohse went an amazing 15-7 with an ERA of 3.78. Lohse parlayed that season into a four-year, $41 million contract from the Cardinals. Cha ching!

I can’t believe the Cardinals, a seemingly smart organization fell for it. How quickly do you think Lohse signed that contract? Two seconds tops.

Guess what Lohse is doing this year? That’s right, he’s back to same awful pitcher we have known to grow to love. He is a Lohsian 5-8 with a 4.78 ERA. That a boy Kyle. I always knew you had it in you again.

Ironically, Pineiro is looking for a contract similar to Lohse’s this offseason. We all know what is going to happen. Some idiotic team is going to give him a three-year, $28 million contract and guess what is going to happen?

In his first year Pineiro is going to go 9-12 with a 4.65 ERA and his contract is going to hamstring that team for the next three years. It’s inevitable.

That’s why if I was a GM, I would stay away from Pineiro in the offseason.

I don’t need to see advanced statistics or anyother stats for that matter. I will just use the “eye test” on this one. And the eye test tells me, once a mediocre pitcher, always a mediocre pitcher.

One year doesn’t change that.

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7 Responses to “Teams Should Stay Away From Joel Pineiro This Offseason”

  1. Justin Says:

    very well said… also I was wondering if you were thinking about writing an all fantasy bust team as well? I had soriano/wright/magglio/webb/hamels/and russell martin all on my team n still finished 3rd rotisserie.. i’d be interested in seeing who your all fantasy bust team is tho

  2. Justin Says:

    ha sorry about that. I posted that before scrolling down to the previous posting.. looks like you’ve already god it covered!

  3. TNCards Fan Says:

    Justin,
    That All Fantasy Bust team…their called the CUBS

    • Adam Bernacchio Says:

      Ha,

      That’s funny. When I was writing the All-Fantasy Bust team, I couldn’t believe how many Cubs could have made the list

    • james k Says:

      they’re (sp). I agree, though. The CUBS are terrible. I blame it on giving out terrible contracts to the likes of (in decending order) Soriano, Zambrano, Dempster, and fukadome. That money could have been spent on fielding a decent second basemen, shortstop, and thirdbasemen for the numerous times a year ramirez is injured. A very poorly run franchise

      • Garrett Says:

        Fukudome has been excellent this year. That’s hardly a terrible contract. Soriano and Zambrano yes, Dempster eh. Fukudome, def not.

  4. james k Says:

    over on fangraphs.com RJ Anderson attributes Pinero’s success to an increased groundball rate (up to 60 percent where he previously was not above 50 percent). He goes on to look at the eight cases since 2002 where pitchers displayed such increases and looks at the year after to see if there is a regression. In all but one case, Ryan Drese 2004, the second year groundballs went down. We’re talking names like CC, Johan, and cliff lee.
    I could say something snarky about wins being an antiquated metric. Instead I’ll just leave it at when we look at pinero’s peripherrals, there is good reason to beleive this year is an aberration.

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