First, let’s look at all the pitchers who were taken with the #1 overall pick in the draft since 1965 and their stats. Please note that I have not counted the stats for David Price (#1 pick in 07) and Luke Hochevar (#1 pick in 06) because it is too early to give them a complete evaluation.
2007 – David Price
2006– Luke Hochevar
2002– Bryan Bullington, 9 G 0-5 5.45 era
1997 – Matt Anderson, 257 G 15-7 51.9 era 26 saves
1996 – Kris Benson, 196 G 68-74 4.37 era
1994 – Paul Wilson, 170 G 40-58 4.86 era
1991 – Brien Taylor, Never Pitched in Majors
1989 – Ben McDonald, 211 G 78-70 3.91 era
1988– Andy Benes, 403 G 155-139 3.97 era 1 save
1983– Tim Belcher, 394 G 146-140 4.16 era 5 saves
1981 – Mike Moore, 450 G 161-176 4.39 era 2 saves
1976 – Floyd Bannister, 431 G 134-143 4.06 era
1973 – David Clyde, 84 G 18-33 4.63 era
All of the above 11 pitchers were can’t miss pitching prospects who were worthy of the #1 pick (Well, maybe not Bryan Bullington but that is for a whole other post). And for all of their talents all these pitchers could do is combine for an average era of 4.63, a lifetime average record of 74-85 and appear in a total of 3 All Star games. The best pitcher on this list was probably Andy Benes. Benes was a solid #2 for most of his career and finished 3rd in the Cy Young voting in 96. If you are a Nationals fan are you happy with an Andy Benes?
Stephen Strasburg
Ok, you might be saying that some of these pitchers were taken 1st because of maybe the best talent in the draft was not signable or they were the #1 pick because it was a weak draft. That’s fine and I agree that might be a factor. So let’s expand shall we? Let’s take a look at all the pitchers taken in the top 5 from 1995-2005. I think 10 years is a fair sample size.
1995
#4 Kerry Wood, 77-61 3.65 era 34 saves
#5 Ariel Prieto, 15-24 4.85 era
1996
#1 Kris Benson, 68-74 4.37 era
#3 Braden Looper, 58-58 3.92 era 103 saves
#4 Billy Koch, 29-25 3.89 era 163 saves
#5 John Patterson, 18-25 4.32 era 1 saves
1997
#1 Matt Anderson, 15-7 51.9 era 26 saves
#4 Jason Grilli, 16-16 4.64 era 15 saves
1998
#2 Mark Mulder, 103-60 4.18 era
#4 Jeff Austin, 2-3 6.75 era
1999
#2 Josh Beckett, 90-63 3.77 era
2000
#2 Adam Johnson, 1-3 10.25 era
#4 Mike Stodolka, Never Pitched in Majors
#5 Justin Wayne, 5-8 6.13 era
2001
#2 Mark Prior, 42-29 3.51 era
#3 Dewon Brazelton, 8-25 6.38 era
#4 Gavin Floyd, 26-19 5.01 era
2002
#1 Bryan Bullington, 0-5 5.45 era
#3 Chris Gruler, Never Pitched in Majors
#4 Adam Loewen, 8-8 5.38 era
#5 Clint Everts, Never Pitched in Majors
2003
#3 Kyle Sleeth, Never Pitched in Majors
#4 Tim Stauffer, 4-7 6.37
2004
#2 Justin Verlander, 46-35 4.18 era
#3 Phil Humber, 0-0 5.79 era
#4 Jeff Niemann, 2-3 6.33 era
#5 Mark Rogers, Never Pitched in Majors
2005
No Pitchers Taken In Top 5
The outlook for Strasburg looks a little brighter. I think every Nationals fan or any fan would take a Josh Beckett type on their staff right now. However, out of those 27 pitchers only 1 in my mind turned out to be worthy of their #5 pick status. That would be Beckett. Mulder was on his way to being a great one but arm injuries derailed his career, the jury is still out on Verlander and sorry Cubs fans, Wood’s 7.7 wins a year over 10 years really is not that impressive. If you are a Nationals fan would you be happy with just getting 6 years out of Strasburg but was a Mulder like 97-50 in those first 6 years? Or do you believe “the best pitching prospect ever” should give you more than 6 years? Interesting debate.
I always believed that a team should draft the best position player available andthen find pitchers later in the draft because position players are usually easier to predict that pitchers. At least if I am drafting a position player #1, I can reference Alex Rodriguez (#1 in 93), Joe Mauer (#1 in 01), Ken Griffey Jr (#1 in 87) and Chipper Jones (#1 in 90). All of which are superstars. Plus, there is a lot of evidence to suggest that you can find top pitching in later rounds. Let’s take a look at some of the top pitchers from the last 20 years and see where they were drafted….
1. John Smoltz – 22nd Round
2. Tom Glavine – 2nd Round
3. Greg Maddux – 2nd Round
4. Randy Johnson – 2nd Round
5. Roy Halladay – 1st Round #17 overall
6. Andy Pettitte – Amatuer Free Agent
7. David Cone – 3rd Round
8. Curt Schilling – 2nd Round
9. Johan Santana – Amateur Free Agent
10. Mariano Rivera – Amateur Free Agent
11. Mike Mussina- 1st Round #20 overall
12. Pedro Martinez – Amateur Free Agent
13. Roy Oswalt- 23rd Round
14. Jake Peavy – 15th Round
15. Jaime Moyer – 6th Round
16. Orel Hershiser – 17th Round
17. Tim Hudson – 6th Round
18. Dwight Gooden- 1st Round #5 overall
19. Roger Clemens – 1st Round #19 overall
20. Dennis Eckersley – 3rd Round
So as you can see, this is a pretty talented group and only Gooden was picked within the top 5. Again, I hope Strasburg does well, but the odds of him being a great major league pitcher are certainly not in his favor.
On a side note, as I was doing the research for this post I realized that the Royals might be one of the worst drafting franchises ever. Take a look at their 1st round picks fom 1992-2001. Just brutal
Tags: Andy Benes, Andy Pettitte, Ben McDonald, Brien Taylor, Bryan Bullington, Curt Schilling, David Clyde, David Cone, David Price, Dennis Eckersley, Dwight Gooden, Floyd Bannister, Greg Maddux, Jaime Moyer, Jake Peavy, Johan Santana, John Smoltz, Kansas City Royals, Kris Benson, Luke Hochevar, major league baseball draft, Mariano Rivera, Matt Anderson, Mike Moore, Mike Mussina, Orel Hershiser, Paul Wilson, Pedro Martinez, Randy Johnson, Roger Clemens, Roy Halladay, Roy Oswalt, San Diego State, Stephen Strasburg, Tim Belcher, Tim Hudson, Tom Glavine, Washington Nationals
The Ghost of Moonlight Graham 
April 16, 2009 at 2:57 am |
Real Baseball Intelligence (RBI), a leading resource in the evaluation of amateur baseball talent and draft coverage, has ranked Stephen Strasburg the #3 prospect in the 2009 MLB Draft. View his free scouting report (with video) at withthefirstpick.net/stephen-strasburg
April 17, 2009 at 6:16 pm |
Very good post. I think many of those pitchers drafted so high was because they didn’t have that extra quality that those top 20 pitchers had. It must be a lot of pressure on those top pitchers considering how high their signing bonuses are. Pitching is more mental than physical (granted you need to throw at least the upper 80s to get considered by a MLB organization) and this needs to be taken into consideration by scouts and organizations.
But it is more luck than anything else, with injuries as it is and teams with limited roster spaces.
April 17, 2009 at 7:29 pm |
Andy Pettitte was a DFE. He was drafted by the Yankees out of high school, played JuCo ball to keep his eligibility in tact and then signed with the Yankees–the only team that could sign him outright due to owning his draft rights–just before the next year’s draft. Technically, he is the same as Adam Loewen or Andy LaRoche.
April 17, 2009 at 8:36 pm |
You are correct. I realized this after I posted the article. I was using Baseball-Reference.com’s draft profile for Pettitte and they said he was signed as an Amateur Free Agent.
April 17, 2009 at 10:10 pm |
“If you are a Nationals fan would you be happy with just getting 6 years out of Strasburg but was a Mulder like 97-50 in those first 6 years? Or do you believe “the best pitching prospect ever” should give you more than 6 years? Interesting debate.”
For draft analysis, though, I think one has to focus in on those first 6 years. One of the keys to success for most teams is getting great production from cost-controlled players. That’s the real power of the draft: getting new talent on the cheap. How a player performs in year 7 and beyond is relevant, but definitely of secondary concern as a) your team may not be able to retain the player and b) if you do sign him to an extension, you will be doing so either at, or close to, a market rate. Certainly there are some negotiating benefits that come from holding a player’s contract for his first 6 seasons, but you’re still likely to have to shell out a market rate to keep them past their arbitration years. It may still be a good idea to resign the player, but at that point, you’re not that far from just signing a someone else’s free agent.
So in the case of Mulder, I’d say he was extremely valuable to the A’s. He was a near-elite pitcher for most of his time in Oakland, didn’t cost much money, and then Beane had the good sense to trade him for a cost-controlled Dan Haren (who has since been turned into more cheap assets). Of course, for Strasburg to even match Mulder’s value would be difficult, given how much more money he is likely to be paid up front.
I do agree with the overall point, though, that pitchers are a big gamble at the top of a draft. Or they are, at least, a bigger gamble since the early picks of the draft are also littered with Ryan Harveys.